The numbers for international inbound travel to the U.S. posted strong numbers in January 2017, according to the latest Travel Trends Index (TTI) created by the U.S. Travel Association.

While the numbers for the first quarter of international travel statistics will be released sometime in April, the most recent TTI is promising, showing a year-over-year growth rate of 7.8%. This is a continuation of a months-long streak of unforeseen growth and defying consistent projections of decline. What’s more, the TTI’s score for the Current Travel Index (CTI) is the highest that it’s been since May 2014.

We broke down the findings to help explain what that Travel Trends Index does, how it’s measured, and what the findings were.

What is the Travel Trends Index?

According to the U.S. Travel Association, the TTI “measures the direction and pace of travel volume to and within the U.S. on a monthly basis.” The TTI reports international travel statistics based on findings determined by the Current Travel Index and the Leading Travel Index.

Current Travel Index

According to the U.S. Travel Association, the CTI “measures the direction and pace of travel volume to and within the U.S. on a monthly basis compared to the same month in the prior year.” The index determines a score based on the “weighting of hotel room demand and air passenger enplanements that represents the overall volume of travelers each month.”

Leading Travel Index

The LTI “is an indicator of the future direction and pace of travel volume to and within the U.S. over the coming three and six months compared to the same period in the prior year.” The score for this index is “based on data sets that have been demonstrated to predict near-term future travel: online travel searches and bookings for future travel, consumer travel intentions data, and economic fundamentals.”

For both indexes, a score above 50 indicates expansion, and a score below 50 indicates decline.

International Travel Statistics Results

We used the data from the TTI findings and turn it into this fun, informative graphic that explains the current international travel trends:

As you can see, though the CTI rates January 2017 as extreme growth, the LTI is predicting a steady decline in international travel by the second half of the year. We’ll keep you posted here at SMTN to determine whether the International Travel Trends defy the TTI predictions or if it will hold true.